How to Win in 2012

How to Win in 2012

Democrats have had a hard year. It's probable that Democrats will have a hard midterm election and a tough 2012 presidential race. Already, at this year's CPAC, Republican challengers have begun to emerge. In the CPAC straw poll, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty all got sizable portions of the vote. Even though the CPAC vote was split, if the Republican Party is able to put up a unified front behind a strong candidate in 2012, the Democratic Party will have a very difficult time winning the election, even with an incumbent.
So the key to Democratic victory becomes isolating the Republican Party into two lesser groups: the 'traditional' fiscal Republicans who are likely to support someone like Romney, and the more polarized, 'tea party' Republicans. However, splitting Republican votes in the primary will only go so far- the Republicans are very skilled at party unification. The DNC must work to split conservative votes in the general, with the introduction of a third party candidate.

Similarly to this year's election in the 23rd district of New York, in order to ensure Democratic victory, the 'tea party', or a similar third party radical conservative group, needs to nominate their own candidate in the general election. New York's 23rd district is a case study in when this works for Democrats. A district which had been a Republican stronghold for years quickly flipped Democrat when the tea party candidate was a challenger in the general. If the same effect is replicated in 2012, the Democrats will easily win the presidency.
The DNC needs to take steps to ensure the nomination of a third party candidate. Some portion of Democratic campaign funds ought to be passed directly onto the tea party. It is imperative that the second challenger is a strong one, able to garner enough votes to significantly impact the Republican candidate.